Weather Forecast Services
here for a recent newsletter about our forecast products.
forecast viewer shows the latest output from four forecast models with the
particular aim of showing the change in the forecast as fast as possible. The
models are ECMWF Ensemble; the ECMWF Operational; the GFS Ensemble and the GFS
Operational. These are processed rapidly as each time step of the model is
received. FastCast forecasts give the trading markets a very quick appraisal of
any change in the forecast from the previous run.
here for more information on FastCast.
Click here to see FastCast-Multi Site showing any four regions simultaneously.
FastCast is licenced group-wide for an unlimited number of users.
Forecast Dashboard The Speedwell Forecast Dashboard
is a fast and convenient way to view all of your Speedwell site-specific
forecast products. The Dashboard displays Speedwell downscaled forecasts for
temperature & precipitation from four forecast models: ECMWF Ensemble, ECMWF
Operational, GFS Ensemble and GFS Operational.
Click here for more information.
Click here to see the product with
Click here to view a Getting-Started document about the Dashboard
15-Day Site-Specific Downscaled Ensemble Forecast: Covering sites in the USA, Canada, Europe, Australia,
China, Japan and South America. These probabilistic multi-member
ensemble forecasts based on the ECMWF and GFS models. They are available as a
data feed by FTP or graphically via our web site.
here to see our forecast viewer showing example
(32-day) Downscaled ECMWF Site-Specific Ensemble Forecast:
Covering sites in the USA, Canada, Europe, Australia, China and Japan.
These 51-member forecasts are available as a data feed by FTP and graphically
via our web site. Based on the ECMWF model which uses a coupled
ocean-atmospheric mode after day 10.The monthly forecast is
issued twice per week..on Mondays and
here to see our forecast viewer showing example
forecast sites (please select Monthly tab)
Population-Weighted Basket Forecasts-FlexIndexes:
Speedwell Weather provides probabilistic forecasts and historic time series based on weighted baskets of weather reference sites. We call these FlexIndexes. Over 50 standard FlexIndex products are available off-the-shelf, but them may also be defined by the client on request.
Used to model
regional energy demand, each FlexIndex is a fully
downscaled probabilistic forecast derived from the component sites in the basket. FlexIndex forecasts are available for 15 days and monthly time periods based on ECMWF and GFS models. FlexIndexes can be viewed on our website and delivered by FTP.
As part of the product we provide:
-ECMWF 15 day downscaled ensemble forecast: note that in order to respect model consistency a basket is created for each ensemble
-ECMWF 32-day downscaled ensemble forecast: note that in order to respect model consistency a basket is created for each ensemble
-GFS 15 day downscaled ensemble forecast: note that in order to respect model consistency a basket is created for each ensemble
-ECMWF 10-day downscaled Operational forecast: note that in order to respect model consistency a basket is created for each ensemble
-GFS 15 day downscaled Operational forecast: note that in order to respect model consistency a basket is created for each ensemble
-History of the weighted basket for TMin, TMax, TAverage
-Cleaned daily feeds
-Climate averages updated annually (kernel-smoothed)
Click here to
see all our weighted baskets on our map tool. Click here for more information about Population Weighted Baskets
USA CAISO Population Weighted Basket
USA ERCOT Population Weighted Basket
USA ISONE population Weighted Basket
USA NYISO Population Weighted Basket
USA PJM Population Weighted Basket
USA SPP Population Weighted Basket
Please note: for whole-of-USA Gas demand modelling please see our WDD day product here and here
Austria Population Weighted Basket
Benelux Population Weighted Basket
Bosnia/Croatia/Serbia Population Weighted Basket
Bulgaria Population Weighted Basket
Croatia Population Weighted Basket
Czech Republic Population Weighted Basket
Denmark Population Weighted Basket
Finland Population Weighted Basket
France Population Weighted Basket
Germany Population Weighted Basket (15 sites, 2010 census)
Germany Population Weighted Basket (5 sites, legacy definition)
Ireland Population Weighted Basket
Italy Population Weighted Basket
Italy-North Population Weighted Basket
Italy-South Population Weighted Basket
Netherlands Population Weighted Basket
Norway Population Weighted Basket
Poland Population Weighted Basket
Romania Population Weighted Basket
Scandinavia Population Weighted Basket
Serbia Population Weighted Basket
Slovenia Population Weighted Basket
Turkey Population Weighted Basket
United Kingdom Population Weighted Basket
Ukraine Population Weighted Basket
Canada Population Weighted Basket
Chile Population Weighted Basket
Uruguay Population Weighted Basket
China Population Weighted Basket
India Population Weighted Basket
Indonesia Population Weighted Basket
Japan Population Weighted Basket
South Africa Population Weighted Basket
South Korea Population Weighted Basket
Thailand Population Weighted Basket
For a trial or further details please contact us here.
European Gas Day Forecasts -New October 2013: We are pleased to release the first of our European Gas-Day Forecasts sites. For these 80 sites we provide a down-scaled ensemble forecast based on the average of the 24 hourly temperatures for the 0600 to 0500 (inc) time period, matching the trading convention of many gas markets in Europe. This product is based on the 15-day ECMWF forecast model. See here for the sites available
European Power Report:
the Power Report provides a graphical representation of weather conditions in
the coming week summarising temperature, rainfall and wind.
here for more
here to see archived example reports.
US Gas-Weighted Degree Day report.
Produced in conjunction with Commodity Weather Group, CWG. Provides the best possible
information to anticipate the EIA natural gas storage and withdrawal reports by
combining recent weather data and forecasts.
here for information about the product.
here to see the WDD Data Viewer.
The WDD product has been updated to reflect 2010 census data.
The Market Report.
A summary showing the impact of the change in the ECMWF forecast over the last
24 hours on the fair-value price of
Click here to see an information sheet about this product.
Click here to see the product
Historic Forecast Archives.
Speedwell are able to provide archives of historic forecasts. We can provide
archives of ECMWF and GFS forecasts for a period of 18 months. We can also
provide n the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) GFS MOS extended forecast from
the June 2000 to present. This is a 7-Day forecast offering daily maximum and
Downscaled Site-Specific Forecasts
Speedwell site-specific ensemble forecasts are available for over 1,200 sites
across the world covering 15-day and monthly periods. Our ensemble forecast is a
fully downscaled probabilistic forecast which captures information that is
normally lost in a traditional deterministic forecast: the confidence of the
forecast at each time step.
The product is based on the forecast models run by two of the world's leading
numerical prediction centres: the European Centre for Medium Range Weather
Forecasting (ECMWF) and the GFS model. The outputs of both models are grid-based
and need to be "downscaled" to produce the site-specific forecasts necessary for
energy and agriculture. The downscaling process requires accurate "ground
truth": ie the availability of actual data for the site concerned for which we
draw on our data base of tens of thousands of weather stations.
An ensemble forecast comprises a number of
"members", each of which can be viewed as a separate forecast. Each member is
derived from multiple runs of the same forecast model by modifying the starting
conditions which are used to initialise those models. Under certain situations,
these changes of conditions can produce a big change in forecast outcomes (high
uncertainty). At other times, these changes have little impact (low
here to see our forecast viewer showing example
How is the forecast viewed?
The forecast is available in view graphical and
in tabular formats through the Speedwell website. The forecasts are also
available as a data feed delivered by FTP. The data feed delivers the underlying
data for each
member of the forecasts.
Viewing the Forecast On the Speedwell Web
The Speedwell forecast may be viewed interactively in graphical and
tabular format through the Speedwell website (www.SpeedwellWeather.com). Uniquely,
the website also offers the user access to
of forecasts as well as the means to overlay forecasts for different sites, for
different forecast periods and for different weather elements (eg TMin / TMax /
rain) with complete flexibility. Graphical images can easily be exported and
used in external documents (subject to licence). Forecasts can be overlaid with
10-year smoothed average, previous year's value, actual outturn and forecast
change from previous run. On-line verification statistics are also made
Some examples of website outputs are shown below:
"Box plots" with Climate Average.
The Box Plot shows the average of all ensembles, a box covering the mid
quartiles, outliers and the smoothed 10-year climate average. The box plots give
a clear sense of the confidence in the forecast with tighter boxes indicating
less forecast uncertainty. Also shown below are thumbnails which lead the user
to a clear representation of the distribution of possible outcomes.
For each day, or in the case of the seasonal forecast, for each month, the
various forecasts implied by each member of the ensemble are shown in
a probability distribution graph.
This gives very important information about the forecast. While a tight spread
shows a high degree of confidence, there are occasions when there is no single
The probability distribution graph drops each
forecast member into "buckets". Thumbnails for
the forecast distribution as shown above can then be inspected at full size as
The "spaghetti" graph gives a full sense of the separate paths of each ensemble.
Member 1, shown in blue below can be easily highlighted.
The "Combination" graph combines the average forecast with recent actual data
and last year's data for context.
Graphical Forecast Overlay
The data graphing options available to the user are shown below. The background
image shows monthly forecasts for TMin and TMax with respective observed data
15-day forecast example showing a plot of the forecast average for TMax and TMin
forecasts issued on 23rd March and on 4th April. Each shown with actual data.
15-day forecast example showing the overlay of TMax ensemble average with
observed data, last year's data and forecast error (green).
Monthly forecast example showing a plot of the 51 member forecast average for
TMax shown with smoothed climatology and outturns.
Speedwell forecasts are
also available in tabular form through the website. The table shown below
presents user-selectable forecast information for a number of sites
simultaneously. Forecast average, median, volatility, difference from 10-year
average as well as HDD and CDD values are available.
The Single Site Daily Forecast Table presents a range of forecast data for the
site selected by the user. For weather derivative traders, the example is of
particular interest as it shows the difference between HDD or CDD derived from
the average of the 51 members and that derived from taking the average HDD/CDD
value using each of the 51 members.
Speedwell Forecast products are used by
energy, agriculture, insurance companies
and banks world-wide.
Becoming a Client
It is possible to experience the full flexibility of the Speedwell forecast
product on our website immediately. Go to
and register for a free trial. This will
give access to a limited range of forecast sites while demonstrating the
comprehensive graphical viewing, overlay and forecast archive features.Forecast Verification
In addition to the verification which can be performed by the user on the
Speedwell website, we are able to provide verification statistics on 15-day and
Forecasts and Weather Derivatives
Speedwell Ensemble Forecasts integrate
automatically with the Speedwell Weather System (SWS) for pricing weather
derivatives. The user can select the forecast type to use and price both using
the average of the forecast and by using each ensemble member separately to
correctly capture the convexity implicit in a probabilistic forecast. Please
contact us for more information