Forecasts
Click here for summary information about our forecast products.
15-Day Downscaled Site-Specific Ensemble: Covering sites in the USA, Canada, Europe, Australia, China and Japan. Full 51-member forecasts available as data feed or graphically via web site and with web-based verification tools. Based on the ECMWF model.
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Monthly (32-day) Downscaled Site-Specific Ensemble: Covering sites in the USA, Canada, Europe, Australia, China and Japan.. Full 51-member forecasts available as data feed and graphically via web site. Based on the ECMWF model. As from Dec 2011 the monthly forecast is issued twice per week..on Mondays and Thursdays
15-day Raw Model Output Forecast: For each site, the most appropriate data point from the gridded output is selected and the average of the 51 members is delivered with no further downscaling.
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NEW 15-day 12-hour Synop Forecast: Coming soon for European sites this probabilistic downscaled forecast produces a minimum temperature forecast for the 1800D-1 to 0600 period and a maximum temperature forecast for the 0600 to 1800 period.
FlexIndex: 15-day and 31-day Population-Weighted Basket Forecasts: Currently available for UK, Germany, Benelux, France and USA eastern seaboard. Please contact us for others. Full 51-member forecasts available as data feed or graphically via web site and with web-based verification tools.
Click here.
ZigZags: ZigZag forecasts show the latest output from either the ECMWF Ensemble or the ECMWF Operational. These are processed rapidly as each time step of the model is received. ZigZag forecasts give the trading markets a very quick appraisal of any change in the forecast from the previous run.
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European Power Report: the Power Report provides a graphical representation of weather conditions in the coming week summarising temperature, rainfall and wind.
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US Gas-Weighted Degree Day report. Produced in conjunction with
Commodity Weather Group, CWG. Provides the best possible information to anticipate the EIA natural gas storage and withdrawal reports.
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The Market Report. A summary showing the impact of the change in the ECMWF forecast over the last 24 hours on the fair-value price of
CME weather futures.
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Weather Data
Click here for summary information about our weather data products.
International Weather Data:
Speedwell Weather supplies historical and real time weather
data feeds for thousands of sites across the globe. We have direct data supply
agreements with a range of national meteorological services and collect data in
real time from multiple public sources. We are a single-point of contact for
the provision of weather data to the energy, commodity, insurance and weather
derivative markets. Our origins as a business lie in providing data for weather derivative and insurance contracts so we understand the importance of data quality.
SuperPack: Corporate-wide access to our
entire worldwide archives of hourly, daily historical weather data and feeds including cleaned data sets for a
single annual subscription.
Click here for more details.
The weather sites and variables available through SuperPack grow continuously: as SuperPack subscribers request new data sets that are not already in our "ready to go" catalogue so that catalogue grows. We carry data for over 100,000 worldwide data sets. With very few exceptions these are all within the scope of SuperPack. This service offers a dramatic simplification of the contractual and legal admin involved in data provision. One contract, one charge covers all.
Please see
here for information about recent additions to our archives, as provided under SuperPack
Cleaned Data Sets: Weather data is often incomplete and may contain erroneous values. Our Cleaned Data Sets correct erroneous values and fill missing data. We carry in excess of 2,000 cleaned historical data sets of temperature and rainfall and some other variables and we clean over 2,000 sites per day. We also provide cleaned hourly data sets and feeds.
Quality issues: We believe data cleaning is a very serious business. Our pedigree is defined by the responsibilities implicit in providing weather data for the pricing and settlement of financial market transactions over the last decade-i.e. weather insurance and weather derivatives. This represents the sternest test of data quality and provenance.
- Our cleaning techniques build on a very substantial software infrastructure which, in turn, uses a database storing data for over 100,000 worldwide weather reference sites. Our tools alert us to improbable values by the use of methods including proxy testing, analysis of hourly reports and satellite imagery. However, we believe weather data cleaning can never, and should never, be fully automated. Our
data cleaning processes are always manually overseen by
meteorologists.
- We understand the importance of data provenance. While clients can request to receive our data as a "best-of" feed, we can also provide data showing the component data types: eg raw synop / cleaned synop / raw climate / edited climate / cleaned climate...etc. The use of such a hierarchy means the user can fully understand which data points have been cleaned. For data downloaded through our web site every data value carries a flag describing its provenance.
Hourly Frequency Reports
We are able to provide hourly frequency reports for any hourly weather variable and for any period. The most frequently requested product is the hourly frequency report covering a specific year and shown by month. This shows how many hours in temperature interval were recorded in each month of that year. Click
here for an annotated example. Hourly Frequency Reports can be provided for any variable for any site for which we carry
hourly data. We carry historic hourly data for many thousands of
sites in Europe, Australia, Asia and the Americas.
Hourly Average Temperature Data Sets ("Climatologies")
Many clients approach us to buy hourly data which they use to calculate an average value for each hour for each day of the year. This is something we can provide saving the costs of buying and handling large hourly data sets. The output is a file with 24 *366 data points and can be delivered by FTP or by email. This can be provided for any variable for any site for which we carry hourly data. The average can be calculated with or without kernel smoothing. The average can be based on any period with 10 years being the most requested. We carry historic hourly data for many thousands of sites in Europe, Australia, Asia and the Americas. Click
here for more information
Standard Historical Weather Data Packs. We have well over 100 different packs of weather data. These include packs defined by country, by sector (eg cotton growing areas) or by weather variable (eg hourly Germany data pack for power market analysts). See
here to view our packs and individual site inventory statistics.
These are just some of our data packs:
Wind storms: historic data and real-time feeds. We
provide historic data for European wind storms reports and can provide
hourly data updates by FTP to support verification of insurance claims
or for the valuation of CAT-bonds throughout the year. Weather variables
we can supply are hourly maximum gust, hourly average wind speed,
hourly wind direction and hourly surface pressure. Data is based on both
Metar and Synoptic reports. We offer a high density of sites. Please see
here for more information.
The Americas
USA: we carry many thousands of sites. Please contact us for other data sets.
USA Primary: 260 sites of c
leaned temperature and rainfall history and feeds for "First Order" stations.
Click here.
USA Secondary: 250 sites c
leaned temperature feeds for "Second Order" stations
USA Hawaii: 4 sites cleaned monthly in arrears
USA Hourly: 200+ site pack providing hourly temperature, rainfall and other variables. [A starter only..we can provide hourly data for 1000s of US sites]
USA Power Regions: Cleaned daily temperature and rainfall and hourly data for sites in USA Power regions:
AZNM (7),
CAMX (14),
ECAR (29),
ERCOT (15) ,
FRCC (9),
MAAC (14),
MAIN (13),
MAPP (22),
NEWE (12),
NWPP (37)
SERC (36),
SPP (12)
Canada : we carry many thousands of sites. Please contact us for other data sets.
Canada Hourly: 6 site Pack (please contact us for others, we carry 1000s of hourly data sets for Canada)
South/Central America: Rainfall and temperature history and feeds. Hourly data on request.
Europe
European CME: data sets for the 11 HDD and CAT weather derivative contracts quoted on the CME
Pacific
Australia: we carry many thousands of sites covering daily, hourly and sub-hourly variables. Please contact us for other data sets.
Australia Hourly: Hourly temperature and rainfall data for > 150 sites (please contact us for more..we carry 1000s of sites)
Australia CME: data sets for the 3 weather derivative sites quoted on the CME
Asia
Japan CME temperature: data sets for the 3 temperature based weather derivative contracts quoted on the CME
Africa
We are currently expanding our coverage of African sites and will be releasing further packs soon
Middle East
Weather Data Packs for CME Weather Derivative Futures
Australia CME: data sets for the 3 weather derivative sites quoted on the CME
USA CME temperature: data sets for the 24 CDD and HDD weather derivative contracts quoted on the CME
USA CME rainfall: data sets for the 9 cumulative rainfall weather derivative contracts quoted on the CME
USA CME snowfall: data sets for the 6 cumulative snowfall weather derivative contracts quoted on the CME
Japan CME temperature: data sets for the 3 temperature based weather derivative contracts quoted on the CME
European CME: data sets for the 9 HDD and CAT weather derivative contracts quoted on the CME
Weather Data Packs for Agriculture
Weather Data Packs for Energy
Please also see hourly country data packs above.
Cleaned daily temperature and rainfall and hourly data for sites in USA Power regions:
AZNM (7),
CAMX (14),
ECAR (29),
ERCOT (15) ,
FRCC (9),
MAAC (14),
MAIN (13),
MAPP (22),
NEWE (12),
NWPP (37)
SERC (36),
SPP (12)
Weather Data Packs for Renewable Energy
Scandinavia Hydro Sites (20) Sites in Norway and Sweden with forecasts and cleaned data feeds for hydro/snow pack modelling.
Weather Data Packs for Coal Ports
Coal Ports: Worldwide Sites with rainfall data and feeds near to major coal ports
Hourly Weather Data
Hourly Weather Data Packs and individual sites: we carry hourly weather data for thousands of sites around the world and can provide real-time feeds. Hourly data can be cleaned on request.
Hourly Temperature Frequency Reports: we can provide reports for any site summarising the number of hours in each temperature bucket by month / year. Click here for an example. Please also contact us for Daily Station Reports, Monthly Summary Data and Rainfall Return Periods data.
Click here.
Individual Historical Data Sets and Feeds:
Historical Data: We pride ourselves on being able to satisfy the most testing requests for weather data from our archives of 100,000+ data sets. Data can be delivered by email, FTP or through our web-download tool.
Weather Data Feeds: we can provide data feeds of sub hourly, hourly and daily data for any weather variable.
Recalibrated Data
Recalibrated Data Sets: Our Recalibrated data sets adjust historical temperature series to current conditions. Most sites, especially US airport, display numerous discontinuities. Corrections for discontinuities can make a profound impact on the understanding of the behaviour of a site.
Recalibrated data sets are available for a range of sites in the USA, Europe, Australia and Japan. Any site can be Recalibrated on request. Please contact us.
Real-Time Monitor: a web delivered tool for spotting discontinuities as they happen in the reporting of temperature due to site moves, instrument changes etc. The relationship of a reference site to a synthetic site derived from a basket of surrounding sites is monitored in real-time with information presented in a configurable graphical format. This service is included as part of the subscription to Recalibrated Data Sets.
CAT Risk
European Windstorm data sets: we can provide an archive of max gusts, average wind speed and wind direction with an exceptionally high geographic granularity and including sub-hourly reports of European windstorms since 1970.
Weather Derivative Pricing and Risk Management
Speedwell Weather System SWS: SWS is the pre-eminent enterprise weather derivative pricing and risk management system comprising front office pricing tools, middle office risk management tools and back office.
SWS consists of many millions of lines of code representing over a
decade of continuous development to produce a tool that provides a
consistent and reliable framework for valuing weather hedges, for
managing a portfolio of weather risk and for the process flow of seeing
those transactions through to settlement. We have a philosophy of
transparency (no black boxes, full documentation of methods), openness
(all SWS outputs are easily exportable, all components re-usable in 3rd
party systems, subject to licence) and we understand the importance of
auditability and resilience.
SWS is a client-server application comprising:
-A full database for warehousing historical weather data, weather data feeds, forecasts and portfolio information
-The SWS server application
-Multiple user desktop applications. A full permissioning architecture provides selective access rights to different users.
SWS can be installed internally or can be hosted by us with each client having a dedicated database.
SWS supports pricing based on numerical integration techniques as well as actuarial burn. Daily rainfall and temperature simulation engines are also available. SWS supports the highly complex and trades that are a feature of the OTC weather risk market with a highly flexible tool that allows the user to generate compound indexes. Compound indexes can comprise any number of weather variables, with any weights and with an unlimited level of complexity (including even compounds on compounds on compounds..)
SWS users can declare an unlimited number of pricing models combining different detrending methods, weather data hierarchies, distributions, leap year adjustments etc. All calculations available within SWS are available as a library for use in other applications. SWS handles an unlimited number of weather risk portfolios. Credit risk, expiry VaR and daily VaR calculations are supported. Delivery and running of reports can be automatically scheduled.
SWS is an open system:
All data grids can be exported to a spreadsheet.
All SWS components can be used in external applications.
Weather data is easy to import and export.
SWS continues to evolve: in over a decade of development we have made available 6 major releases and numerous minor releases to our clients. We are currently completing a major re-write of all code as we move to the MS .NET framework.
Build Vs Buy Considerations
We believe SWS is a compelling alternative to the apparent attractions of developing a system in-house. If you are considering internal development and your weather system has not/will not accommodate these considerations, then SWS may be an expedient alternative:
- Does your weather system handle hourly data?.. strips? ..compounds?.. multi period deals?..multi triggers? ..baskets?
- When pricing a transaction can you exclude days of the week and specific dates?...
- Does it support ultra exotic deals through a "back door" with those deals still being fully incorporated in portfolio calculations?..
- Can you create a structure that handles non-consecutive hourly periods in a day?..
- Do you handle leap year adjustments robustly? (we offer six different methodologies)...
- Can your middle office users stress test a portfolio by overriding the front office valuation models with one of their own choice?...
- Can you price a weather hedge using INDIVIDUAL members of an ensemble forecast to capture the implicit convexity?...
- Does your weather database respect the different data qualities that are used and which may be dramatically different even at the same weather station?..
- Would your audit trail breakdown if a weather data point already used in settling a transaction is later revised by a national met service and subsequently updated after settlement of a weather hedge?..
- Can you detrend the underlying weather data AND the final index?...
- Does your detrending method respect the differing trends in different times of year? ...
- Does your system automate the raising of trade confirmations and invoices?
- Do you have a permissioning structure that prevents, for example, accidental deletion of booked trades by front office users or un-authorised changes to front office models by back office users?...
- Do you handle credit risk reports..?
- Can you easily export weather data and historical forecasts for use in external applications ?
- Can you run a weather hedge valuation or a retrospective portfolio valuation using only the information that was available at that time?
- Can you retrieve a snapshot of the weather data that was used to settle a transaction before and QC revisions to that data?
- Does your weather database respect the various different types of weather data on which a transaction can be priced? SWS supports more than a dozen data types and allows the user to price with different data hierarchies.
- Can your database support non weather variables including energy or commodity prices ?
- Does your weather database scale to 1000s of weather sites and handle daily, hourly and sub hourly ..down to individual minutes ?
- Does your weather pricing system support weatherML for the purpose of sending and receiving RFQs?
Click here for a presentation about SWS.
Click here for information on SWS Back-office process flow.
Click here for SWS FAQs
Click here for SWS Technical Requirements
Click here to see what is in development
SWSConnect. SWSConnect is a web-delivered weather derivative pricing tool based on the same underlying components as SWS. Ideal for pricing CME weather derivative contracts. Click here.
Web delivered tools:
Through the Speedwell web site, a number of tools are available that build on our underlying data sets. These include
Actuals –Vs-Climatology Calculator: shows the average or accumulated values of a chosen weather variable compared with N-year climate normals. The data is presented in an exportable grid and in graphical format.
Click here
Analogue Years calculator: Compare the evolution of a weather index over previous years with the evolution of the current year. Use the eventual outcomes of previous years as an indication of what may happen this time.
Click here
Climatology Calculator: calculate kernel-smoothed 10-year average daily values of temperature and rainfall for a selected range of sites.
Click here
Conditional Probability Calculator: allows the historical relationship between a weather variable at Site A for a given period to be compared with Site B for the same, or different period. E.g. do January temperatures in New York tell us anything about February temperatures in De Bilt?
Click here
Correlation Analysis: calculate the daily or monthly correlation co-efficient and R-square value for two series. The tool also allows the auto-correlation of a given series to be calculated showing the dependency up to 10 points out.
Click here
Daily Degree Days Table: shows the recent daily values of HDD, CDD or Average Temperature.
Click here
Date Viewer: view historical data graphically.
Click here
Index Calculator: calculate the historical values of a weather index for a chosen period with or without detrending.
Click here
Monthly / Weekly Index Calculator: calculate monthly, weekly or bi-weekly index values of any chosen weather variable.
Click here
Weather Analytics: shows user-specified weekly index values and compares them with the previous year's values.
Click here
Weather Index Cone: presents the evolution of a weather index over the chosen index period and puts the current and previous years into historical context.
Click here
Services
Click here for summary information about our Services.
Weather Station Installation: Installed weather stations can be used for primary settlement, as back-up station(s), or as part of a quality control program used for the creation of certified settlement data. These installations can improve data quality, reduce moral hazard and help bring down the cost of a weather hedging program.
Click here.
Independent Weather Derivative Valuation Service. Speedwell have been involved in the weather market for over a decade. We have the experience, tools and data necessary to provide an independent objective assessment of the fair value of a weather derivative structure or portfolio of structures. Please contact us.
Weather Derivative Risk Placement Services. Please contact us for more information and to request a presentation on the issues involved in optimally placing weather risk.
Weather risk analysis: contact us to help you understand your weather risk