Speedwell Site-Specific Ensemble Forecasts
Speedwell site-specific ensemble forecasts are available for over 100 sites across
the world covering 15-day, monthly and seasonal periods.
The ensemble forecast is a fully downscaled probabilistic forecast which inherently
captures information that is normally lost in a traditional deterministic forecast:
the uncertainty of the forecast at each time step.
The forecast is available in graphical and tabular formats through the Speedwell
website and as a full N-member data file via FTP.
The Speedwell forecast may be viewed interactively in graphical and tabular format
through the Speedwell website (SpeedwellWeather.com). Uniquely, the website also
offers the user access to historical archives of forecasts as well as the means
to overlay forecasts for different sites, for different forecast periods and for
different weather elements. Forecasts can be overlaid with 10-year smoothed average,
previous years’ value, actual out-turn and forecast change from previous run. Forecast
error can also be shown permitting on-line verification of forecasts to be performed.
Graphical images can easily be exported.
Click
here
to see our Forecast tools.
The Box Plot shows the average of all ensembles, a box covering the mid quartiles,
outliers and the smoothed 10-year climate average. The box plots give a clear sense
of the confidence in the forecast with tighter boxes indicating less forecast uncertainty.
Also shown below are thumbnails which lead the user to a clear representation of
the distribution of possible outcomes.
The "Combination" graph combines the average forecast with recent actual data
and last year's data for context.
The probability distribution graph drops each
forecast member into buckets. In the example shown it can be seen that the
average of the forecast (green line) does not correspond to the most probable
outcome.
ZigZag Forecasts
Speedwell ZigZag forecasts graphically show the change from the previous run of
the ECMWF Ensemble and Operational forecasts. Updated as each time step of the model is released and showing the difference
between between successive model runs or previous runs. The goal is to present the
information in a straight-forward manner as fast as possible. The ZigZag forecasts
is also available in tabular format.
European Power Report
The European Power Report provides a graphic representation of weather
conditions in the coming week across Europe showing temperature, rainfall and
wind in one summary. Derived from the Speedwell site-specific ensemble
forecasts, the European Power Report is used by a number of national grid
companies and energy / emissions trading desks.
Speedwell FlexIndex Forecast
Speedwell weatherXchange
offers a unique range of forecast products derived from our existing
site-specific ensemble forecasts and historical datasets. The
Speedwell weatherXchange FlexIndex
forecast is an ensemble forecast based on a basket of reference sites and
provided with a synthetic history. This is used by traders and modelers who want
a single probabilistic basket forecast to assist in their regional power and gas
trading or general demand modeling.
A range of standard
FlexIndexes are
currently available based on European population-weighted European regions.
These are created by firstly identifying climatic zones within each region and
then assigning reference stations to each zone. A reference station has to
fulfill certain quality criteria to be used with an index, such as having a good
historical data set and continuing reliable real-time observations. Weights for
each reference site within the Index are then calculated by taking official
population statistics for each climatic zone and applying them to the reference
site. Our routine production systems use this information to produce historical
time-series, climatological averages and ensemble forecast products.
|
Illustration of UK and Northern Ireland FlexIndex Product |
 |
Weights calculated using 2001 National Census figures
|
London
|
19.7%
|
|
Manchester
|
11.5% |
|
Wattisham
|
9.3% |
|
Birmingham
|
10.0% |
|
Glasgow
|
8.6% |
|
Leeds |
8.5% |
|
Bristol |
4.5% |
|
Nottingham |
7.4% |
|
Cardiff |
4.9% |
|
Newcastle |
4.3% |
|
Plymouth |
2.7% |
|
Belfast |
2.8% |
|
Source of National Statistics –
www.statistics.gov.uk
|
As well as offering a set of standard
FlexIndex forecasts we are able
to rapidly generate these baskets to the specification of individual clients who
specify sites and weights, periods and index type. This becomes their own
exclusive forecast, not made available to anyone else.
Weighted Degree Day Report
A gas-consumption weighted degree day report and forecast
Combining CSG forecasts and SWD data. this product provides the best possible
information to anticipate the ELA natural gas storage and withdrawal reports.
What it does
- Use the data to estimate the EIA natural gas storage and
-
withdrawal forecasts (high weather correlation)
-
Use the data to examine historical events in the context of recent, current, or
upcoming extreme weather events
- Correlate with energy usage
From: Ken Wells
Sent: Wednesday, December 30, 2009 7:13 AM
To: Ken Wells
Subject: Degree Day Forecasts (12/30/09)
Date: 12/30/2009
Here is a quick look at today’s national gas weighted DD breakdown by EIA week:
Current week-ending 12/31 222.3 (-0.9) HDDs and 0.0 (0.0) CDDs
Week-ending 1/7 256.0 (+2.5) HDDs and 0.0 (0.0) CDDs
Week-ending 1/14 244.3 (+5.4) HDDs and 0.0 (0.0) CDDs
** (change from previous forecast is shown in parenthesis)
What is Provided
-
Operational Data (delivered daily) Numerical product: previous 7 days of cleaned
actuals & 15-day forecast (presented as daily values on state, regional, production / consumption, and
national level)
-
Underlying daily data delivered daily via FTP
-
Summary maps / tables (see example)
-
E-mail summary of the national numbers (see example)
Historical Data
-
Max / Min station data, HDD / CDD totals on a state, regional, production /
consumption, and national levels
-
Data available from Jan 1st 1975 to present
Climatological Data
-
Continuously updated 10 yr and 30 yr smoothed normals
The Inputs...
-
Speedwell: industry leader for cleaned weather observations, data quality
controlled, missing values filled
Speedwell are able to provide archives of historic forecasts. The archive
available is that based on the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) GFS MOS
extended forecast from the June 2000 to November 2009. This is a 7-Day forecast
offering daily maximum and minimum temperature. The archived forecasts can be
provided on a station-by-station basis or for all available sites within
geographic areas. Archives for the USA are available for immediate delivery.
Other areas are available on request. Please contact us for more information.