Forecast Tools
Forecast Products

Weather Forecasts

 

Speedwell weather supplies site-specific ensemble forecasts across the world covering 15-day, monthly and seasonal periods. The ensemble forecast is a probabilistic forecast which inherently captures information that is normally lost in a traditional deterministic forecast.

Forecasts can be delivered both with interactive web-delivered tools and as underlying data. Web-based forecast delivery gives users the ablility to view, interrogate, and verify archived forecasts as well as overlay historical data.

Speedwell Weather supplies forecasts to clients in energy and weather derivative markets across the globe.
Forecast products


Ensemble Forecasts
ZigZag Forecasts
European Power Report
Flexible Index Forecast
U.S. Weighted Degree Day Report
Historical Forecast Archives

Speedwell Site-Specific Ensemble Forecasts

Speedwell site-specific ensemble forecasts are available for over 100 sites across the world covering 15-day, monthly and seasonal periods.

The ensemble forecast is a fully downscaled probabilistic forecast which inherently captures information that is normally lost in a traditional deterministic forecast: the uncertainty of the forecast at each time step.

The forecast is available in graphical and tabular formats through the Speedwell website and as a full N-member data file via FTP.

The Speedwell forecast may be viewed interactively in graphical and tabular format through the Speedwell website (SpeedwellWeather.com). Uniquely, the website also offers the user access to historical archives of forecasts as well as the means to overlay forecasts for different sites, for different forecast periods and for different weather elements. Forecasts can be overlaid with 10-year smoothed average, previous years’ value, actual out-turn and forecast change from previous run. Forecast error can also be shown permitting on-line verification of forecasts to be performed. Graphical images can easily be exported.

Click here to see our Forecast tools. 
 
 
The Box Plot shows the average of all ensembles, a box covering the mid quartiles, outliers and the smoothed 10-year climate average. The box plots give a clear sense of the confidence in the forecast with tighter boxes indicating less forecast uncertainty. Also shown below are thumbnails which lead the user to a clear representation of the distribution of possible outcomes.
The "Combination" graph combines the average forecast with recent actual data and last year's data for context.
The probability distribution graph drops each forecast member into buckets. In the example shown it can be seen that the average of the forecast (green line) does not correspond to the most probable outcome.